The Rivalry Between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs
Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills have consistently outperformed Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs during the regular season. However, when it comes to the playoffs, the narrative has been reversed. While the Bills have managed to secure four consecutive victories against the Chiefs in regular-season matchups, the Chiefs have emerged victorious in the past four playoff encounters, including two AFC championship games.
In January, Mahomes led the Chiefs to a 32-29 victory, sending them to their third straight Super Bowl. This result highlighted the Chiefs' resilience and ability to perform under pressure. Despite some early criticism suggesting that Kansas City's dominance might be ending, the team (5-3) has shown remarkable improvement, winning five of their last six games and playing some of their best football in recent years.
On the other hand, the Bills (5-2) started the season with a four-game winning streak and were considered strong contenders for the Super Bowl before suffering consecutive losses. As the season progresses, the Chiefs are currently listed as 2-point favorites on BetMGM Sportsbook.
Pro Picks, which had a successful week with a win when Baltimore defeated Miami 28-6 on Thursday night, predicts that Harrison Butker will hit a game-winning field goal as time expires.
Key Matchups and Predictions
CHIEFS: 27-26 vs. ARIZONA (2-5) at DALLAS (3-4-1)
The line is set at Cowboys minus 2 1/2. The Cardinals are coming off a bye and riding a five-game losing streak. They should have Kyler Murray back to face the NFL’s second-worst defense. The Cowboys have been up and down over the first half, with most of their struggles on the defensive side. Dak Prescott, along with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, leads the No. 1 passing attack in the NFL. The Cowboys are 14-7 ATS in prime-time games since 2021, including 2-0 this season.
BEST BET: COWBOYS: 30-23
SEATTLE (5-2) at WASHINGTON (3-5)
The line is set at Seahawks minus 3 1/2. Sam Darnold has provided consistent play at quarterback, and the defense is allowing just 19.4 points per game. The Commanders can't afford another loss after matching last season's loss total already. After reaching the NFC title game, they're in danger of falling completely out of the playoff race with another loss. Jayden Daniels is expected to return and lead an offense missing key players.
UPSET SPECIAL: COMMANDERS: 23-20
MINNESOTA (3-4) at DETROIT (5-2)
The line is set at Lions minus 8 1/2. J.J. McCarthy is expected to return for the Vikings after missing five games with an ankle injury. The offensive line must protect him better than they did for Carson Wentz. The Lions rebounded from a loss to the Chiefs with a convincing win over Tampa Bay before their bye week. The Vikings are 5-8-1 ATS when playing a game on any extended rest under coach Kevin O’Connell. The Lions are 8-0 ATS against Minnesota with QB Jared Goff.
LIONS: 31-17
CHICAGO (4-3) at CINCINNATI (3-5)
The line is set at Bears minus 2 1/2. The Bears need Caleb Williams to be better. He didn’t throw a touchdown pass in the past two games and has been inconsistent. That’s contributed to the team’s struggles in the red zone. The Bengals had a chance to even their record but surrendered 39 points to the lowly and previously winless Jets. Joe Flacco has 7 TDs and no interceptions in three games for Cincinnati. Teams are 0-7 ATS this season the week after playing the Jets.
BEARS: 26-22
CAROLINA (4-4) at GREEN BAY (5-1-1)
The line is set at Packers minus 13. With a depleted offensive line, Carolina’s best chance to stay close is for Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard running effectively no matter who is starting at quarterback. Jordan Love was outstanding for the Packers in his first head-to-head matchup against the Steelers. Green Bay has averaged 23.3 points in the second half of its past four games.
PACKERS: 30-16
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (5-3) at TENNESSEE (1-7)
The line is set at Chargers minus 9 1/2. Justin Herbert and the Chargers were impressive in a Thursday night win against Minnesota and have extra rest going into this matchup. Titans interim coach Mike McCoy coached the Chargers previously. Tennessee has lost 11 straight home games ATS. The Titans are 13-35-2 ATS in their past 50 games. Chargers are 10-2 ATS as a road favorite on the East Coast under Jim Harbaugh.
CHARGERS: 31-13
ATLANTA (3-4) at NEW ENGLAND (6-2)
The line is set at Patriots minus 6. The Falcons have lost two in a row since beating Buffalo. Michael Penix Jr. missed last week’s loss to Miami and Kirk Cousins couldn’t get the offense going. Drake Maye has emerged as an MVP candidate and Mike Vrabel has led an impressive turnaround in New England. The Patriots have won seven in a row against Atlanta, including their comeback from a 28-3 deficit in a Super Bowl.
PATRIOTS: 23-20
SAN FRANCISCO (5-3) at NEW YORK GIANTS (2-6)
The line is set at 49ers minus 2 1/2. Christian McCaffrey could have a big day against a defense that allowed 150 yards rushing to Saquon Barkley and 104 to Tank Bigsby last week. The 49ers are missing many key players, but the offense needs to count on McCaffrey and George Kittle. Without Cam Skattebo and Malik Nabers, Jaxson Dart has a tough task. But San Francisco doesn’t have Fred Warner, Nick Bosa or Bryce Huff on defense.
49ERS: 24-19
INDIANAPOLIS (7-1) at PITTSBURGH (4-3)
The line is set at Colts minus 3. The Colts are surging behind a rejuvenated Daniel Jones and MVP candidate Jonathan Taylor. They’re only one victory away from matching last season's win total. The Steelers signed Aaron Rodgers to improve the passing game. Their high-priced additions in the secondary — Jalen Ramsey and Darius Slay — haven’t helped prevent teams from passing against them. Pittsburgh has the worst pass defense in the NFL.
COLTS: 24-23
DENVER (6-2) at HOUSTON (3-4)
The line is set at Texans minus 1 1/2. A matchup of two of the best defenses in the NFL. The Texans are first in yards and fewest points per game. The Broncos are fifth in both categories. Bo Nix and Denver’s offense have produced 77 points in the past five quarters. C.J. Stroud is coming off a spectacular performance for the Texans. It’s the second week in a row Houston is a favorite against a team that has three more wins.
TEXANS: 19-16
JACKSONVILLE (4-3) at LAS VEGAS (2-5)
The line is set at Jaguars minus 3. The Jaguars followed up an impressive win over the Chiefs with consecutive duds. They’re coming off a bye week and need to get back on the winning track. Pete Carroll’s team has been a disappointment in Las Vegas. Geno Smith has struggled and the Raiders aren’t doing anything well. They also are coming off a bye that should help them get some players back. Carroll was 0-4 with the Seahawks after a bye in his last four years.
JAGUARS: 24-18
NEW ORLEANS (1-7) at LOS ANGELES RAMS (5-2)
The line is set at Rams minus 14. The Saints are a bad football team but their defense can cause trouble for opponents. They’ll give rookie QB Tyler Shough his first start to try to boost the offense. With a big game upcoming against San Francisco, the Rams just have to avoid overlooking New Orleans. They’re returning from a bye aiming for a strong second half to position themselves for a playoff run. The Rams haven’t covered the spread in their past four games after a bye.
RAMS: 30-13
Weekly Performance Summary
- Last week: Straight up: 10-3. Against spread: 7-6.
- Overall: Straight up: 89-31-1. Against spread: 62-58-1.
- Prime-time: Straight up: 16-12-1. Against spread: 12-17.
- Best Bet: Straight up: 7-1. Against spread: 6-2.
- Upset Special: Straight up: 6-2. Against spread: 6-2.
About Pro Picks
Pro Picks is a weekly column where AP Pro Football Writer Rob Maaddi shares his picks for upcoming games. For all previous Pro Picks, head here.
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Rob Maaddi, The Associated Press